There are a few natural reasons why the probabilities can shift over time:

👉  New players and ratings – Whenever new players are added or ratings are updated, it changes the mix of players in each player rating and rarity bucket. That means some odds naturally shift as the pools re-balance.

👉 Injuries, suspensions and absences – Players who are out injured, suspended or absent are automatically removed from any relevant pools (and re-added once they’re available again). Because the data feed updates daily, these changes happen regularly and can alter the balance of who’s in the mix.

👉 Player availability in real life – Football is unpredictable! A wave of injuries, squad rotation for cup competitions, or players returning from the sidelines can all affect which players are active, which in turn changes the probabilities.

👉 Agent Manny progression – As you level up Manny, he improves the quality of players he brings back. That means the rarity buckets he pulls from can change over time, which also shifts the probabilities.

In short, the system is dynamic and mirrors the real world of football – which means probabilities can shift depending on who’s actually available.

We’ll continue to explore ways of making this feel as balanced and transparent as possible, but the fluid nature of football is always going to keep things a little bit unpredictable (and that’s part of the fun!).